US Average Hourly Earnings m/m - ForexCracked
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United States · Employment

US Average Hourly Earnings m/m USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Nov 6 13:30 UTC · consensus 0.2% · previous 0.1%  

What this release is

The US Average Hourly Earnings report measures the month over month change in the average hourly wages for all employees on private non-farm payrolls. This data is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as a component of its comprehensive Employment Situation Summary. It provides insight into the compensation trends within the American labor market.

Forex traders closely monitor average hourly earnings because wage growth is a significant indicator of inflationary pressures in the economy. Sustained increases in wages can lead to higher consumer spending and production costs, potentially contributing to broader inflation. The Federal Reserve considers these trends when evaluating the economic outlook and determining its monetary policy stance, which in turn influences the U.S. Dollar.

Market participants typically focus on the headline month over month percentage change in average hourly earnings upon its release. Revisions to previous months’ data are also observed for their implications. This report is released simultaneously with other key employment figures, contributing to a collective market reaction. Historically, this series has often been associated with a high impact on currency markets.

How hard it hits, measured

125 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
21pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
41pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
175pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD19p16p21p41p
AUDUSD13p14p16p27p
GBPUSD16p19p22p48p
NZDUSD14p13p16p29p
USDCAD20p21p26p41p
USDCHF15p15p17p32p
USDJPY20p22p26p43p
XAUUSD53p51p55p126p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=2 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 2, 20260.1%0.3%0.3%—+21p—
Sep 4, 20260.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%-10p—
Aug 7, 20260.1%0.3%0.3%—+42p—
Jul 2, 20260.3%0.3%0.3%———
Jun 5, 20260.3%0.3%0.2%—-50p—
May 8, 20260.2%0.3%0.2%—+14p—
Apr 3, 20260.2%0.3%0.4%—-11p—
Mar 6, 20260.3%0.2%0.4%—-6.4p—
Feb 11, 20260.4%0.3%0.3%0.1%-36p—
Jan 9, 20260.1%0.3%0.1%0.2%-5.0p—
Dec 16, 20250.4%0.4%0.2%0.4%+14p—
Nov 20, 20250.4%0.4%0.3%0.4%+30p—
Sep 5, 20250.4%0.3%0.3%—+22p—
Aug 1, 20250.3%0.4%0.2%—+175p—
Jul 3, 20250.2%0.4%0.4%—-22p—
Jun 6, 20250.4%0.4%0.2%—-31p—
May 2, 20250.0%0.4%0.3%—+14p—
Apr 4, 20250.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%-53p—
Mar 7, 20250.3%0.4%0.5%0.4%+9.5p—
Feb 7, 20250.4%-0.1%0.3%—+7.4p—
Jan 10, 20250.3%0%0.4%—-45p—
Dec 6, 20240.4%0.1%0.4%—-1.5p—
Nov 1, 20240.3%0.2%0.4%0.3%+11p—
Oct 4, 20240.3%0.6%0.4%0.5%-66p—

Showing the latest 24 of 125 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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