US Average Hourly Earnings m/m - ForexCracked
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United States · Employment

US Average Hourly Earnings m/m USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Oct 2 12:30 UTC · consensus 0.3% · previous 0.3%  

What this release is

The US Average Hourly Earnings report measures the month over month change in the average hourly wages for all employees on private non-farm payrolls. This data is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as a component of its comprehensive Employment Situation Summary. It provides insight into the compensation trends within the American labor market.

Forex traders closely monitor average hourly earnings because wage growth is a significant indicator of inflationary pressures in the economy. Sustained increases in wages can lead to higher consumer spending and production costs, potentially contributing to broader inflation. The Federal Reserve considers these trends when evaluating the economic outlook and determining its monetary policy stance, which in turn influences the U.S. Dollar.

Market participants typically focus on the headline month over month percentage change in average hourly earnings upon its release. Revisions to previous months’ data are also observed for their implications. This report is released simultaneously with other key employment figures, contributing to a collective market reaction. Historically, this series has often been associated with a high impact on currency markets.

How hard it hits, measured

126 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
21pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
42pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
175pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD19p17p21p42p
AUDUSD14p14p16p27p
GBPUSD17p20p22p49p
NZDUSD14p14p16p28p
USDCAD22p21p26p42p
USDCHF15p16p17p32p
USDJPY21p22p27p48p
XAUUSD53p52p56p129p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=2 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 4, 20260.3%0.3%0.1%0.2%-10p
Sep 4, 20260.3%-10p
Aug 7, 20260.1%+42p
Aug 7, 20260.1%0.3%0.3%+42p
Jul 2, 20260.3%0.3%0.3%
Jun 5, 20260.3%0.3%0.2%-50p
May 8, 20260.2%0.3%0.2%+14p
Apr 3, 20260.2%0.3%0.4%-11p
Mar 6, 20260.3%0.2%0.4%-6.4p
Feb 11, 20260.4%0.3%0.3%0.1%-36p
Jan 9, 20260.1%0.3%0.1%0.2%-5.0p
Dec 16, 20250.4%0.4%0.2%0.4%+14p
Nov 20, 20250.4%0.4%0.3%0.4%+30p
Sep 5, 20250.4%0.3%0.3%+22p
Aug 1, 20250.3%0.4%0.2%+175p
Jul 3, 20250.2%0.4%0.4%-22p
Jun 6, 20250.4%0.4%0.2%-31p
May 2, 20250.0%0.4%0.3%+14p
Apr 4, 20250.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%-53p
Mar 7, 20250.3%0.4%0.5%0.4%+9.5p
Feb 7, 20250.4%-0.1%0.3%+7.4p
Jan 10, 20250.3%0%0.4%-45p
Dec 6, 20240.4%0.1%0.4%-1.5p
Nov 1, 20240.3%0.2%0.4%0.3%+11p

Showing the latest 24 of 126 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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