US Average Hourly Earnings m/m preview: Consensus matches previous at 0.3%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
Traders are looking ahead to the US Average Hourly Earnings month over month release on October 2, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. The market consensus anticipates a 0.3% increase, matching the previous reading of 0.3%. This high impact release is closely watched for insights into wage inflation, a critical component influencing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
Historically, this release has generated significant market movement. Our data shows that the median 1-hour move after past releases was 21 pips for EURUSD, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 41+ pips. GBPUSD has seen a median move of 22 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 48+ pips. For USDJPY, the median move was 27 pips, and top-quarter releases moved 43+ pips. XAUUSD, or Gold, has shown a median 1-hour move of 55 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 126+ pips. Other pairs also react, with AUDUSD and NZDUSD typically moving 16 pips at the median, USDCAD 26 pips, and USDCHF 17 pips. The direction reliability on EURUSD after past releases stands at 58%.
Recent prints show varied outcomes. The September 2026 release came in at 0.3%, against a forecast of 0.2%, followed by a -10 pip 1-hour move on EURUSD. In August 2026, the actual was 0.1% compared to a 0.3% forecast, with EURUSD moving +42 pips. The June 2026 release saw an actual of 0.3% matching the forecast, but EURUSD moved -50 pips. May 2026 showed an actual of 0.2% against a 0.3% forecast, leading to a +14 pip move on EURUSD.