BoJ Interest Rate Decision preview: Market anticipates unchanged rates
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDJPY | — | — |
The Bank of Japan’s upcoming interest rate decision, scheduled for 2026-10-30 at 02:30 UTC, is a high-impact event for the Japanese Yen. Market consensus anticipates the rate to remain below 1.25%, matching the previous reading. This decision is closely watched for any shifts in the central bank’s monetary policy stance, particularly given recent inflation trends and global economic conditions.
Historically, the BoJ Interest Rate Decision has prompted significant volatility across JPY crosses. Over 81 to 83 releases since 2015, the median 1-hour move after the announcement has been 12 pips for USDJPY and EURJPY, 11 pips for GBPJPY, 9 pips for AUDJPY and CHFJPY, and 8 pips for CADJPY and NZDJPY. For top-quarter releases, these moves have exceeded 35 pips for USDJPY, 40 pips for EURJPY, 39 pips for GBPJPY, 32 pips for CHFJPY, 27 pips for CADJPY, 23 pips for AUDJPY, and 18 pips for NZDJPY. Directional reliability statistics are not currently available.
Recent releases have shown varied market reactions. The September 2026 decision saw an actual rate of 1.3% against a forecast of <1.25%, leading to a +82 pip 1-hour move in USDJPY. In July 2026, an actual rate of 1% matched the forecast of <1.00%, with USDJPY moving +8.1 pips. Earlier in April 2026, an actual rate of 0.8% was followed by a -44 pip 1-hour move in USDJPY.