CB Consumer Confidence preview: Consensus points to a decline from 91.2

Traders are looking ahead to the CB Consumer Confidence Index (USD) release on July 28 at 14:00 UTC. This high impact event is closely watched for insights into consumer sentiment, which can influence spending and economic growth. The market consensus forecasts a reading of 89.5, a notable decrease from the prior month’s 91.2. A lower confidence reading could signal concerns among consumers regarding current and future economic conditions, potentially impacting the US Dollar.

Historically, this release has generated significant market movement across major currency pairs. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 11 pips, with top-quarter events seeing moves of 17+ pips. GBPUSD has shown a median 1-hour move of 14 pips, and top-quarter releases have moved 23+ pips. USDCAD typically sees a median 1-hour move of 12 pips, with larger events moving 24+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has historically experienced a median 1-hour move of 33 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 57+ pips.

Recent prints of the CB Consumer Confidence Index have shown varied outcomes relative to forecasts. The June 30, 2026 release came in at 91.2 against a forecast of 88.8, leading to a +37 pips 1-hour move in EURUSD. In May, the actual reading was 93.1 compared to a forecast of 99.7, resulting in a -0.7 pips EURUSD move. The March 31, 2026 release saw an actual 91.8 against a 98.2 forecast, with EURUSD moving -12 pips.