Chicago Business Barometer preview: consensus 61.3 against 58.8 prior
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The MNI Chicago Business Barometer is due on 2026-10-30 at 13:45 UTC and carries a High impact rating. Consensus sits at 61.3, compared with a previous reading of 58.8. That gap of 2.5 points means the market is looking for a firmer print than September’s. For USD traders, the release is a regional activity gauge that lands as an input to the wider US growth picture, so the size of any miss or beat against 61.3 is what the desk will be watching.
Our own price feed shows how hard this release has hit in the first hour since 2015. The median 1-hour move is 9 pips for AUDUSD, 11 pips for EURUSD, 14 pips for GBPUSD, 8 pips for NZDUSD, 16 pips for USDCAD, 10 pips for USDCHF and 11 pips for USDJPY. XAUUSD has a median of 31 pips. In the top quarter of releases, moves reached 15+ pips in AUDUSD, 17+ in EURUSD, 26+ in GBPUSD, 15+ in NZDUSD, 23+ in USDCAD, 18+ in USDCHF, 20+ in USDJPY and 66+ in XAUUSD. Samples run from 118 to 123 releases depending on the pair. We do not yet have enough live-captured releases to publish direction statistics, so none are offered here.
Recent prints have varied. September came in at 58.8, with EURUSD moving -3.1 pips in the following hour. July’s 57.6 against a 56.5 forecast was followed by a +21 pip EURUSD move. June’s 56.7 versus 45.5 forecast saw +18 pips, while May’s 62.7 versus 44 forecast saw -3.2 pips. April’s 49.2 against 50.1 was followed by +23 pips. After past releases, the size of the hourly move has not tracked the size of the surprise in any simple way.