MNI Chicago Business Barometer - ForexCracked
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United States

MNI Chicago Business Barometer USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Wed, Sep 30 13:45 UTC · consensus TBA  

What this release is

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer is a monthly economic indicator published by Market News International (MNI), sourced from marketnews.com. It measures business conditions and sentiment within the Chicago region, providing a snapshot of activity in the business sector.

Forex traders monitor this barometer for insights into the health of the broader US economy. Stronger business activity in a significant region like Chicago can signal potential for wider economic growth, influencing expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Shifts in these expectations often lead to movements in the US Dollar.

With a typical high impact rating, the market often focuses on the headline figure of the MNI Chicago Business Barometer. Revisions to previous months’ data can also draw attention. This monthly release provides a timely update on regional business trends.

How hard it hits, measured

122 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
17pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
70pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.7p4.7p11p17p
AUDUSD2.2p3.6p9.6p15p
GBPUSD4.5p6.7p14p26p
NZDUSD2.4p3.9p8.5p15p
USDCAD3.4p5.4p16p23p
USDCHF2.9p4.5p10p18p
USDJPY3.2p5.4p10p20p
XAUUSD12p16p31p66p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 23 of 43 cases · median -1.2p n=43 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 28 of 54 cases · median +0.5p n=54 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 8 of 10 cases · median +16p n=10 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Jul 31, 202657.656.556.7—+21p—
Jun 30, 202656.745.562.7—+18p—
May 29, 202662.74449.2—-3.2p—
Apr 30, 202649.250.152.8—+23p—
Mar 31, 202652.8—57.7—+2.6p—
Feb 27, 202657.7—54—-0.6p—
Jan 30, 202654—43.5—-11p—
Dec 30, 202543.542.436.3—-13p—
Nov 26, 202536.344.843.8—+11p—
Oct 31, 202543.840.740.6—-0.7p—
Sep 30, 202540.645.841.541.5+16p—
Aug 29, 202541.542.547.1—+29p—
Jul 31, 202547.142.440.4—+29p—
Jun 30, 202540.442.640.5—+30p—
May 30, 202540.546.244.6—+11p—
Apr 30, 202544.653.147.6—-16p—
Mar 31, 202547.640.345.5—-25p—
Feb 28, 202545.543.439.5—+11p—
Jan 31, 202539.541.836.9—+6.9p—
Dec 30, 202436.939.240.2—-6.9p—
Nov 27, 202440.237.441.6—+1.6p—
Oct 31, 202441.642.646.6—-16p—
Sep 30, 202446.644.446.1—-27p—
Aug 30, 202446.144.245.3—+6.1p—

Showing the latest 24 of 121 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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