Core CPI m/m preview: Consensus points to slower inflation

The US Core CPI month over month release is scheduled for October 14, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. This high impact economic indicator measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding volatile food and energy components. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 0.2%, a deceleration from the previous month’s 0.3% increase. This figure is closely watched for its implications on inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Historically, this release has generated significant market movement. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move after past Core CPI releases has been 20 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 38+ pips over 128 events since 2015. GBPUSD has observed a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 42+ pips. Other major pairs like AUDUSD and NZDUSD typically see median 1-hour moves of 15 pips, while USDJPY has a median move of 21 pips. Gold, XAUUSD, often experiences larger volatility, with a median 1-hour move of 51 pips and top-quarter releases moving 108+ pips. The direction reliability on EURUSD has been 60% based on live samples.

Looking at recent history, the September 2026 release showed an actual reading of 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2%, leading to a +9.5 pips EURUSD 1-hour move. The August 2026 print matched forecasts at 0.2%, resulting in a +7.2 pips EURUSD move. Notably, the July 2026 release came in at -0.0% compared to a 0.2% forecast, which saw EURUSD move +37 pips in the hour following the announcement.