US Core CPI m/m - ForexCracked
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United States · Inflation

US Core CPI m/m USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Sep 11 12:30 UTC · consensus 0.2% · previous 0.2%  

What this release is

The US Core Consumer Price Index, month over month, measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of consumer goods and services. This core measure specifically excludes the often volatile food and energy components to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes this report.

Forex traders closely monitor US Core CPI because it is a primary indicator of inflation within the United States. Sustained inflation trends can influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. When core inflation rises, the Federal Reserve may consider adjusting interest rates to manage price stability. Such policy shifts can impact the value of the US dollar by altering its yield attractiveness compared to other currencies.

The market typically focuses on the headline month over month percentage change upon release. Significant deviations from expectations can prompt immediate market reactions. Traders also observe any revisions to prior month’s data, as these can provide additional context on inflation’s trajectory. The report’s timing, released monthly, ensures its consistent relevance for assessing ongoing price pressures.

How hard it hits, measured

129 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
21pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
38pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
187pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD13p16p21p38p
AUDUSD12p13p15p32p
GBPUSD14p15p22p42p
NZDUSD12p12p15p31p
USDCAD12p12p15p28p
USDCHF11p11p15p29p
USDJPY14p17p21p38p
XAUUSD42p50p51p106p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=2 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 12, 20260.2%0.2%0%+7.2p
Aug 12, 20260.2%+7.2p
Jul 14, 2026-0.0%+37p
Jul 14, 2026-0.0%0.2%0.2%+37p
Jun 10, 20260.2%0.2%0.4%+11p
May 12, 20260.4%0.1%0.2%-0.9p
Apr 10, 20260.2%0.2%0.2%+20p
Mar 11, 20260.2%0.2%0.3%-13p
Feb 13, 20260.3%0.1%0.2%+8.8p
Jan 13, 20260.2%0.2%+17p
Dec 18, 20250.2%0.1%0.2%+10p
Oct 24, 20250.2%0.3%0.3%+21p
Sep 11, 20250.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%+44p
Aug 12, 20250.3%0.3%0.2%+21p
Jul 15, 20250.2%0.2%0.1%+1.7p
Jun 11, 20250.1%0.1%0.2%+26p
May 13, 20250.2%0.1%0.1%+29p
Apr 10, 20250.1%0.3%0.2%+18p
Mar 12, 20250.3%0.4%0.4%-0.8p
Feb 12, 20250.4%0.2%0.2%-19p
Jan 15, 20250.2%0.3%0.3%+38p
Dec 11, 20240.3%0.3%0.3%-6.3p
Nov 13, 20240.3%0.4%0.3%-5.0p
Oct 10, 20240.3%0.4%0.3%+13p

Showing the latest 24 of 129 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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