Core CPI y/y (EUR) comes in at 2.5% against 2.4% consensus

Eurozone Core CPI year over year for July 2026 was reported at 2.5%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.4%. The actual figure also marked an increase from the previous reading of 2.4%. This print represented a 4.2% surprise relative to the market consensus.

Following the release, the euro showed varied movements against major currencies over the first 15 minutes. EURJPY saw a notable increase of 91 pips, while EURCAD declined by 8.9 pips. EURUSD moved down by 7.0 pips. Other pairs experienced smaller shifts. For context, the median 1-hour move for EURJPY after past releases has been 7 pips, suggesting the current move is larger than typical. EURUSD’s 15-minute move of 7.0 pips is larger than its median 1-hour move of 5 pips. EURCAD’s 8.9 pips decline is also larger than its median 1-hour move of 7 pips. EURAUD, EURCHF, EURGBP, and EURNZD showed moves that were relatively small compared to their respective median 1-hour historical movements of 9 pips, 5 pips, 5 pips, and 10 pips.