Core CPI y/y - ForexCracked
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Euro area

Core CPI y/y EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Sep 17 09:00 UTC · consensus 2.4% · previous 2.4%  

What this release is

Core Consumer Price Index year over year for the Eurozone measures the annual percentage change in the prices of a basket of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. This prices sector data is published monthly by the official statistical office of the European Union, with official source information found at ec.europa.eu.

Forex traders closely monitor Core CPI as a key indicator of underlying inflation trends within the Eurozone. Central banks, like the European Central Bank, often use core inflation metrics to inform their monetary policy decisions aimed at maintaining price stability. Sustained shifts in core inflation can influence expectations for interest rate adjustments, thereby impacting the Euro’s valuation.

The market typically gives Medium impact to this release. Traders primarily focus on the headline year over year figure upon its monthly publication. While the initial release is the main driver, any revisions to prior period data can also attract attention and lead to further market adjustments after past releases.

How hard it hits, measured

244 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
5pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
10pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
36pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.6p3.5p5.4p10p
EURAUD3.6p5.0p8.6p16p
EURCAD3.3p4.2p7.4p14p
EURCHF2.0p3.0p5.3p9.7p
EURGBP2.0p2.7p5.2p9.6p
EURJPY3.3p4.9p6.9p14p
EURNZD3.7p6.3p10p20p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 32 of 56 cases · median -1.4p n=56 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 28 of 55 cases · median +0.2p n=55 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 56 of 109 cases · median -0.3p n=109 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 1, 20262.4%2.4%2.5%—-0.3p—
Aug 19, 20262.5%2.5%2.5%—+8.1p—
Jul 31, 20262.5%2.4%2.4%—-18p—
Jul 17, 20262.4%2.4%2.4%—-1.6p—
Jul 1, 20262.4%2.4%2.6%—-8.4p—
Jun 17, 20262.6%2.5%2.5%—+2.1p—
Jun 2, 20262.5%2.3%2.2%—-0.4p—
May 20, 20262.2%2.2%2.2%—-2.3p—
Apr 30, 20262.2%2.4%2.3%—+15p—
Apr 16, 20262.3%2.3%2.3%—-6.7p—
Mar 31, 20262.3%2.4%2.4%—+1.3p—
Mar 18, 20262.4%2.4%2.4%—+1.3p—
Mar 3, 20262.4%2.3%2.2%—-13p—
Feb 25, 20262.2%2.4%2.4%—-7.9p—
Feb 4, 20262.4%2.3%2.3%—-0.1p—
Jan 19, 20262.3%2.3%2.3%—-0.3p—
Jan 7, 20262.3%2.4%2.4%—+4.2p—
Dec 17, 20252.4%2.4%2.4%—+9.3p—
Dec 2, 20252.4%2.4%2.4%—-3.3p—
Nov 19, 20252.4%2.4%2.4%—-3.6p—
Oct 31, 20252.4%2.2%2.4%—-4.8p—
Oct 17, 20252.4%2.3%2.3%—+4.3p—
Oct 1, 20252.3%2.2%2.3%—-17p—
Sep 17, 20252.3%2.3%2.3%—-2.5p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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