ECB Deposit Facility Rate Decision - ForexCracked
Euro area

ECB Deposit Facility Rate Decision EUR

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 29 13:15 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 2.5%  

What this release is

The ECB Deposit Facility Rate Decision announces the interest rate the European Central Bank (ECB) pays to commercial banks for overnight deposits. This rate is a core instrument of the ECB’s monetary policy, affecting the money sector. The official source for this announcement is ecb.europa.eu.

Forex traders closely monitor this decision because changes to the deposit facility rate directly influence the cost of borrowing and lending within the Eurozone. A higher rate can increase the attractiveness of euro-denominated assets, potentially strengthening the euro. Conversely, a lower rate may reduce the euro’s appeal, affecting its value against other currencies.

The market typically digests this release by focusing on the announced rate change and any accompanying forward guidance from the ECB. While expectations often build before the decision, unexpected changes or new policy signals can lead to significant volatility. This release typically has a high impact on the market.

How hard it hits, measured

82 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
25pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
39pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
136pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD7.3p8.8p25p39p
EURAUD10.0p11p28p51p
EURCAD8.7p9.4p30p48p
EURCHF3.8p5.3p9.0p22p
EURGBP4.6p5.5p14p21p
EURJPY8.3p9.1p28p43p
EURNZD12p14p34p57p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 10, 20262.5%—2.25%—-15pStory
Jul 23, 20262.25%—2.25%—-26p—
Jun 11, 20262.25%—2%—-7.9p—
Apr 30, 20262%—2%—-11p—
Mar 19, 20262%—2%—+25p—
Feb 5, 20262%—2%—+27p—
Dec 18, 20252%—2%—+18p—
Oct 30, 20252%—2%—+25p—
Sep 11, 20252%—2%—+44p—
Jul 24, 20252%—2%—+4.6p—
Jun 5, 20252%—2.25%—+38p—
Apr 17, 20252.25%—2.5%—-5.2p—
Mar 6, 20252.5%—2.75%—+31p—
Jan 30, 20252.75%—3%—+33p—
Dec 12, 20243%—3.25%—-7.5p—
Oct 17, 20243.25%—3.5%—-41p—
Sep 12, 20243.5%—3.75%—+22p—
Jul 18, 20243.75%—3.75%—-6.8p—
Jun 6, 20243.75%—4%—+14p—
Apr 11, 20244%—4%—+11p—
Mar 7, 20244%—4%—-6.8p—
Jan 25, 20244%—4%—-29p—
Dec 14, 20234%—4%—+59p—
Oct 26, 20234%—4%—+15p—

Showing the latest 24 of 82 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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