ECB Deposit Facility Rate Decision - ForexCracked
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Euro area

ECB Deposit Facility Rate Decision EUR

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Sep 10 12:15 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 2.25%  

What this release is

The ECB Deposit Facility Rate Decision announces the interest rate the European Central Bank (ECB) pays to commercial banks for overnight deposits. This rate is a core instrument of the ECB’s monetary policy, affecting the money sector. The official source for this announcement is ecb.europa.eu.

Forex traders closely monitor this decision because changes to the deposit facility rate directly influence the cost of borrowing and lending within the Eurozone. A higher rate can increase the attractiveness of euro-denominated assets, potentially strengthening the euro. Conversely, a lower rate may reduce the euro’s appeal, affecting its value against other currencies.

The market typically digests this release by focusing on the announced rate change and any accompanying forward guidance from the ECB. While expectations often build before the decision, unexpected changes or new policy signals can lead to significant volatility. This release typically has a high impact on the market.

How hard it hits, measured

81 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
26pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
39pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
136pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD7.8p8.9p26p39p
EURAUD9.9p11p28p52p
EURCAD8.7p9.6p31p48p
EURCHF3.8p5.2p9.0p22p
EURGBP5.0p5.7p14p21p
EURJPY8.3p8.7p27p43p
EURNZD12p14p34p55p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Jul 23, 20262.25%2.25%-26p
Jun 11, 20262.25%2%-7.9p
Apr 30, 20262%2%-11p
Mar 19, 20262%2%+25p
Feb 5, 20262%2%+27p
Dec 18, 20252%2%+18p
Oct 30, 20252%2%+25p
Sep 11, 20252%2%+44p
Jul 24, 20252%2%+4.6p
Jun 5, 20252%2.25%+38p
Apr 17, 20252.25%2.5%-5.2p
Mar 6, 20252.5%2.75%+31p
Jan 30, 20252.75%3%+33p
Dec 12, 20243%3.25%-7.5p
Oct 17, 20243.25%3.5%-41p
Sep 12, 20243.5%3.75%+22p
Jul 18, 20243.75%3.75%-6.8p
Jun 6, 20243.75%4%+14p
Apr 11, 20244%4%+11p
Mar 7, 20244%4%-6.8p
Jan 25, 20244%4%-29p
Dec 14, 20234%4%+59p
Oct 26, 20234%4%+15p
Sep 14, 20234%3.75%-37p

Showing the latest 24 of 81 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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