Core CPI - ForexCracked
Euro area

Core CPI EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Oct 16 09:00 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 103.3  

What this release is

Core Consumer Price Index for the Eurozone measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy components. This key inflation indicator is published monthly by the European Commission, via its official statistical office, with data available on ec.europa.eu.

Forex traders closely monitor Core CPI as a primary gauge of underlying inflation pressures within the Eurozone. Sustained changes in core inflation can influence the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates. Higher or lower interest rate expectations can affect the Euro’s valuation against other currencies.

After past releases, market participants typically focus on the headline Core CPI figure, comparing it against consensus expectations. Significant deviations from forecasts can prompt immediate market reactions. Traders also consider any revisions to previous months’ data, as these can provide additional context on inflation trends. This monthly release is often a key event for Euro currency pairs.

How hard it hits, measured

168 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
5pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
10pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
36pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.4p3.4p5.0p9.6p
EURAUD3.6p4.8p9.0p17p
EURCAD2.8p3.9p7.2p14p
EURCHF2.0p3.0p5.8p10p
EURGBP1.6p2.6p5.0p8.8p
EURJPY3.6p6.1p6.9p15p
EURNZD3.7p6.3p10p20p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 2, 2026103.3—103.06—-1.5p—
Sep 17, 2026103.06—103.07—-0.4p—
Sep 1, 2026103.07—102.84—-0.3p—
Aug 19, 2026102.84—102.84—+8.1p—
Jul 31, 2026102.84—102.87—-18p—
Jul 17, 2026102.87—102.9—-1.6p—
Jul 1, 2026102.9—102.68—-8.4p—
Jun 17, 2026102.68—102.67—+2.1p—
Jun 2, 2026102.67—102.35—-0.4p—
May 20, 2026102.35—102.34—-2.3p—
Apr 30, 2026102.34—101.41—+15p—
Apr 16, 2026101.41—101.38—-6.7p—
Mar 31, 2026101.38—100.56—+1.3p—
Mar 18, 2026100.56—100.56—+1.3p—
Mar 3, 2026100.56—99.7999.8-13p—
Feb 25, 202699.79—123.08—-7.9p—
Feb 4, 2026——123.08—-0.1p—
Jan 19, 2026123.08—123.08—-0.3p—
Jan 7, 2026123.08—122.67—+4.2p—
Dec 17, 2025122.67—122.67—+9.3p—
Dec 2, 2025122.67—123.33—-3.3p—
Nov 19, 2025123.33—123.32—-3.6p—
Oct 31, 2025123.32—123—-4.8p—
Oct 17, 2025123—122.99—+4.3p—

Showing the latest 24 of 168 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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