Euro area

Consumer Price Expectations EUR

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Nov 27 10:00 UTC · consensus 41.3 · previous 33.9  

What this release is

The Consumer Price Expectations for the Eurozone measure how consumers anticipate future price changes. This monthly release, focusing on the consumer sector, is published by the European Commission, with official data found on ec.europa.eu.

Forex traders monitor these expectations closely because they can influence actual inflation trends and, consequently, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions. Elevated consumer price expectations may suggest future inflationary pressures, potentially prompting the central bank to consider tighter policies. Conversely, subdued expectations might indicate less inflationary pressure.

After past releases, the market typically focuses on the headline figure, assessing its deviation from consensus expectations. Significant differences between the actual release and market forecasts have often led to notable price movements for the Euro, reflecting the series’ typical high impact on currency markets.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
12pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
64pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.2p3.0p6.6p12p
EURAUD3.1p5.1p11p17p
EURCAD2.8p3.4p7.2p12p
EURCHF1.7p2.3p5.1p8.4p
EURGBP1.5p2.4p4.5p9.3p
EURJPY3.2p4.7p8.6p15p
EURNZD3.7p4.9p9.9p17p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 24 of 41 cases · median -1.6p n=41 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 25 of 38 cases · median +4.0p n=38 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=5 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 29, 202633.941.135.234.7+14p—
Sep 29, 202635.23233—-13p—
Aug 28, 20263324.430.330.4-4.8p—
Jul 30, 202630.3403433.9+16p—
Jun 29, 20263448.140.540.4+7.4p—
May 28, 202640.550.949.148.8-2.5p—
Apr 29, 202649.139.543.443.5-2.7p—
Mar 30, 202643.424.525.826.2-1.6p—
Feb 26, 202625.824.824.124.2+1.3p—
Jan 29, 202624.124.126.7—-14p—
Jan 8, 202626.722.223.124.3+3.0p—
Nov 27, 202523.121.921.9—+6.3p—
Oct 30, 202521.925.424—-9.5p—
Sep 29, 20252418.925.925.8-5.8p—
Aug 28, 202525.933.125.1—+6.3p—
Jul 30, 202525.11821.221.3-4.8p—
Jun 27, 202521.21723.6—-0.3p—
May 27, 202523.634.229.629.4-0.1p—
Apr 29, 202529.626.424.424.5-5.0p—
Mar 28, 202524.424.221.121.4-4.9p—
Feb 27, 202521.121.220.2—-2.7p—
Jan 30, 202520.217.82121.2-6.8p—
Jan 8, 20252115.717.717.8-0.3p—
Nov 28, 202417.712.113.313.5+19p—

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
← Back to the economic calendar