Consumer Price Expectations - ForexCracked
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Euro area

Consumer Price Expectations EUR

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Sep 29 09:00 UTC · consensus 32 · previous 33  

What this release is

The Consumer Price Expectations for the Eurozone measure how consumers anticipate future price changes. This monthly release, focusing on the consumer sector, is published by the European Commission, with official data found on ec.europa.eu.

Forex traders monitor these expectations closely because they can influence actual inflation trends and, consequently, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions. Elevated consumer price expectations may suggest future inflationary pressures, potentially prompting the central bank to consider tighter policies. Conversely, subdued expectations might indicate less inflationary pressure.

After past releases, the market typically focuses on the headline figure, assessing its deviation from consensus expectations. Significant differences between the actual release and market forecasts have often led to notable price movements for the Euro, reflecting the series’ typical high impact on currency markets.

How hard it hits, measured

122 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
6pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
11pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
64pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.3p2.8p6.3p11p
EURAUD3.1p5.1p11p17p
EURCAD2.8p3.4p6.9p13p
EURCHF1.7p2.4p5.1p8.5p
EURGBP1.5p2.4p4.6p9.4p
EURJPY3.2p4.6p8.5p15p
EURNZD3.7p4.9p11p17p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 23 of 40 cases · median -1.4p n=40 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 24 of 37 cases · median +3.4p n=37 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=5 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 28, 20263324.430.330.4-4.8p
Jul 30, 202630.3403433.9+16p
Jun 29, 20263448.140.540.4+7.4p
May 28, 202640.550.949.148.8-2.5p
Apr 29, 202649.139.543.443.5-2.7p
Mar 30, 202643.424.525.826.2-1.6p
Feb 26, 202625.824.824.124.2+1.3p
Jan 29, 202624.124.126.7-14p
Jan 8, 202626.722.223.124.3+3.0p
Nov 27, 202523.121.921.9+6.3p
Oct 30, 202521.925.424-9.5p
Sep 29, 20252418.925.925.8-5.8p
Aug 28, 202525.933.125.1+6.3p
Jul 30, 202525.11821.221.3-4.8p
Jun 27, 202521.21723.6-0.3p
May 27, 202523.634.229.629.4-0.1p
Apr 29, 202529.626.424.424.5-5.0p
Mar 28, 202524.424.221.121.4-4.9p
Feb 27, 202521.121.220.2-2.7p
Jan 30, 202520.217.82121.2-6.8p
Jan 8, 20252115.717.717.8-0.3p
Nov 28, 202417.712.113.313.5+19p
Oct 30, 202413.311.710.911-5.4p
Sep 27, 202410.911.911.3+15p

Showing the latest 24 of 122 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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