CPI m/m - ForexCracked
Euro area

CPI m/m EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Oct 16 09:00 UTC · consensus 3.2% · previous 3.2%  

What this release is

The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The month over month, or m/m, reading reflects the percentage change in prices compared to the previous month. This monthly report for the Eurozone is published by the official statistical agency of the European Union, with data available from ec.europa.eu. It provides a key indicator for the prices sector.

Forex traders closely monitor Eurozone CPI data because it is a primary gauge of inflation. Central banks, such as the European Central Bank, often consider inflation trends when making decisions about monetary policy, including interest rates. Higher or lower inflation can influence expectations for future interest rate adjustments, which in turn can affect the attractiveness of the euro relative to other currencies.

After past releases, market participants have typically focused on the headline CPI m/m figure. Significant deviations from consensus forecasts can lead to immediate market reactions. While initial readings are important, subsequent revisions to the data in later reports are also observed for their potential to alter the overall inflation picture. The timing of this monthly release is also a factor in how traders position themselves.

How hard it hits, measured

206 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
6pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
10pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
36pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.4p3.4p5.6p10p
EURAUD3.3p4.8p9.0p17p
EURCAD3.0p4.1p7.4p14p
EURCHF2.0p2.9p5.4p10p
EURGBP1.8p2.6p4.9p8.8p
EURJPY3.3p5.2p6.8p15p
EURNZD3.7p6.2p10p20p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 28 of 55 cases · median -0.1p n=55 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 40 of 73 cases · median -1.2p n=73 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 35 of 64 cases · median -1.6p n=64 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 2, 20263.2%4.2%0.4%—-1.5p—
Sep 17, 20260.4%2.9%2.9%—-0.4p—
Sep 1, 20262.9%1.2%0.2%—-0.3p—
Aug 19, 20260.2%2.8%2.8%—+8.1p—
Jul 31, 20262.8%1.5%-0.1%—-18p—
Jul 17, 2026-0.1%3.2%3.2%—-1.6p—
Jul 1, 20263.2%1.5%0.1%—-8.4p—
Jun 17, 20260.1%3%3%—+2.1p—
Jun 2, 20263%1.7%1%—-0.4p—
May 20, 20261%2.6%2.6%—-2.3p—
Apr 30, 20262.6%0.3%1.3%—+15p—
Apr 16, 20261.3%1.9%1.9%—-6.7p—
Mar 31, 20261.9%1.1%0.6%—+1.3p—
Mar 18, 20260.6%1.7%1.7%—+1.3p—
Mar 3, 20261.7%0.1%-0.6%—-13p—
Feb 25, 2026-0.6%2%2%—-7.9p—
Feb 4, 20262%-0.1%0.2%—-0.1p—
Jan 19, 20260.2%0.2%0.2%—-0.3p—
Jan 7, 20260.2%0%-0.3%—+4.2p—
Dec 17, 2025-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%—+9.3p—
Dec 2, 2025-0.3%0.1%0.2%—-3.3p—
Nov 19, 20250.2%0.2%0.2%—-3.6p—
Oct 31, 20250.2%0.3%0.1%—-4.8p—
Oct 17, 20250.1%0.1%0.1%—+4.3p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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