CPI y/y - ForexCracked
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Euro area

CPI y/y EUR

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Sep 17 09:00 UTC · consensus 2.8% · previous 2.8%  

What this release is

The Eurozone Consumer Price Index, or CPI, measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The year over year figure, CPI y/y, indicates the percentage change from the same month a year ago. This key inflation indicator for the Eurozone is published monthly by the European Union’s statistical office, with official data available from ec.europa.eu.

Forex traders closely monitor Eurozone CPI y/y because it is a primary gauge of inflation, a critical factor for the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions. Sustained inflation above or below the central bank’s target can prompt adjustments to interest rates or other policy tools. Such policy shifts can influence the attractiveness of the euro, affecting its valuation against other currencies.

Given its high impact rating, the release of Eurozone CPI y/y often leads to significant market reactions. The headline year over year figure typically draws the most immediate attention from market participants. Revisions to previously reported data can also be a point of focus, as they may alter the perceived inflation trend. After past releases, EUR crosses have shown volatility.

How hard it hits, measured

244 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
5pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
10pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
36pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.6p3.5p5.4p10p
EURAUD3.6p5.0p8.6p16p
EURCAD3.3p4.2p7.4p14p
EURCHF2.0p3.0p5.3p9.7p
EURGBP2.0p2.7p5.2p9.6p
EURJPY3.3p4.9p6.9p14p
EURNZD3.7p6.3p10p20p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 36 of 60 cases · median -1.5p n=60 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 40 of 67 cases · median +0.7p n=67 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 52 of 93 cases · median -2.1p n=93 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 1, 20262.8%3.1%2.9%-0.3p
Aug 19, 20262.9%3.2%3.2%+8.1p
Jul 31, 20263.2%2.9%2.8%-18p
Jul 17, 20262.8%3%3%-1.6p
Jul 1, 20263%2.1%3.2%-8.4p
Jun 17, 20263.2%2.6%2.6%+2.1p
Jun 2, 20262.6%2.6%3%-0.4p
May 20, 20263%1.9%1.9%-2.3p
Apr 30, 20261.9%2.3%2.6%+15p
Apr 16, 20262.6%1.7%1.7%-6.7p
Mar 31, 20261.7%1.8%1.9%+1.3p
Mar 18, 20261.9%2%2%+1.3p
Mar 3, 20262%1.8%1.7%-13p
Feb 25, 20261.7%2.1%2.1%-7.9p
Feb 4, 20262.1%2%1.9%-0.1p
Jan 19, 20261.9%2%2%-0.3p
Jan 7, 20262%2.1%2.1%+4.2p
Dec 17, 20252.1%2.2%2.2%+9.3p
Dec 2, 20252.2%2.1%2.1%-3.3p
Nov 19, 20252.1%2.1%2.1%-3.6p
Oct 31, 20252.1%2.2%2.2%-4.8p
Oct 17, 20252.2%2.2%2.2%+4.3p
Oct 1, 20252.2%2.1%2%-17p
Sep 17, 20252%2.1%2.1%-2.5p

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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