Eurozone CPI y/y preview: consensus 3.4% after a 3.8% reading
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
Eurozone CPI y/y is due on 2026-11-04 at 10:00 UTC and carries a High impact rating. Consensus sits at 3.4%, compared with a previous reading of 3.8%. The forecast therefore points to a slower annual rate than the last print, which makes the gap between the actual number and the 3.4% consensus the figure the market will be comparing against.
Our own price feed shows how hard this release has hit the euro crosses in the first hour. The measured median 1-hour move, with the size of a top-quarter reaction in brackets, is: EURNZD 10 pips (20+), EURAUD 8 pips (16+), EURCAD 7 pips (14+), EURJPY 7 pips (14+), EURCHF 5 pips (10+), EURGBP 5 pips (9+) and EURUSD 5 pips (10+). These figures cover roughly 241 to 247 releases per pair since 2015. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available, so we make no claim about which way any pair moves.
Recent prints have been mixed against forecast. The last six releases, in order from the latest, were 3.8% (forecast 2.9%), 2.9% (forecast 3.0%), 3.2% (forecast 2.8%), 2.8% (forecast 3.1%), 2.9% (forecast 3.2%) and 3.2% (forecast 2.9%). The EURUSD 1-hour move after those releases was +8.2, -1.5, -0.4, -0.3, +8.1 and -18 pips. The sizes of those moves varied widely, and they did not line up in any simple way with whether the actual number beat or missed the forecast.