Core PCE Price Index m/m preview: Consensus points to slight increase
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The Core PCE Price Index month over month, a key inflation metric for the US Dollar, is scheduled for release on 2026-10-29 at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 0.3%, a slight increase from the previous month’s 0.2%. This release carries a high impact rating, as the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, closely watched for its implications on monetary policy decisions.
Historically, this release has often led to notable market movements. For example, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 20+ pips. GBPUSD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 13 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 26+ pips. USDJPY has a median 1-hour move of 10 pips, and top-quarter releases have moved 21+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 29 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 51+ pips. Direction reliability on EURUSD after past releases has been 47%.
Recent releases have shown varied outcomes. The September 2026 print came in at 0.2%, matching the forecast, and EURUSD moved +2.1 pips in the hour following. In August 2026, the actual was 0.2% against a 0.2% forecast, with EURUSD moving -15 pips. The July 2026 release registered 0.1% compared to a 0.4% forecast, leading to a +3.8 pips move for EURUSD.