US Core PCE Price Index m/m - ForexCracked
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United States · Inflation

US Core PCE Price Index m/m USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Wed, Sep 30 12:30 UTC · consensus 0.2% · previous 0.2%  

What this release is

The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, month over month, tracks the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy items. This key inflation gauge is published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Forex traders closely monitor this index because it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Persistent shifts in the Core PCE Price Index can influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, including adjustments to interest rates. Such policy changes can affect the U.S. dollar’s valuation against other major currencies.

The market typically focuses on the headline month over month percentage change. Traders also pay attention to any revisions made to previous months’ data. After past releases, significant deviations from analyst expectations have often been associated with heightened volatility in U.S. dollar currency pairs.

How hard it hits, measured

122 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
20pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
69pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD5.0p6.3p11p20p
AUDUSD2.8p4.7p7.6p13p
GBPUSD5.6p8.1p14p26p
NZDUSD3.5p4.3p7.6p14p
USDCAD5.6p7.2p13p20p
USDCHF3.8p5.5p7.0p13p
USDJPY6.1p7.2p11p21p
XAUUSD16p19p29p53p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 21 of 40 cases · median +0.3p n=40 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 16 of 28 cases · median -4.0p n=28 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 12 of 23 cases · median +1.3p n=23 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 26, 20260.2%0.2%0.1%—-15p—
Aug 26, 20260.2%———-15p—
Jul 30, 20260.1%0.4%0.3%—+3.8p—
Jul 30, 20260.1%———+3.8p—
Jun 25, 20260.3%0.1%0.2%0.3%+25p—
May 28, 20260.3%0.2%0.3%—+8.5p—
Apr 30, 20260.3%0.3%0.4%—-8.8p—
Apr 9, 20260.3%0.4%0.4%—+3.5p—
Mar 13, 20260.4%0.3%0.4%—+8.2p—
Feb 20, 20260.4%0.2%0.2%—-13p—
Jan 22, 20260.4%0.2%0.2%—+14p—
Dec 5, 20250.2%—0.2%0.2%-1.7p—
Sep 26, 20250.2%0.2%0.3%0.2%+2.9p—
Aug 29, 20250.2%0.2%0.3%—+5.3p—
Jul 31, 20250.2%0.4%0.2%—-28p—
Jun 27, 20250.3%0.3%0.1%—+5.0p—
May 30, 20250.2%0.1%0%0.1%-20p—
Apr 30, 20250.2%0.2%0.4%0.5%-1.9p—
Mar 28, 20250.1%0.2%0.3%—+34p—
Feb 28, 20250.4%0.2%0.2%—-0.5p—
Jan 31, 20250.3%0.2%0.1%—-13p—
Dec 20, 20240.1%0.2%0.3%—-5.5p—
Nov 27, 20240.3%0.2%0.3%—+14p—
Oct 31, 20240.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%+6.6p—

Showing the latest 24 of 122 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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