US Core PCE Price Index m/m preview: Consensus expects 0.3%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The US Core PCE Price Index m/m release is scheduled for 2026-09-30 at 12:30 UTC. This high-impact event is closely watched as a primary inflation gauge by the Federal Reserve. Market consensus projects a 0.3% increase for the month, following the previous reading of 0.2%. A print matching or exceeding expectations would indicate persistent inflationary pressures.
Historically, this release has generated significant market movement. Across 120 releases since 2015, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 20+ pips. GBPUSD has shown a median 1-hour move of 14 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 26 pips. USDCAD typically moves a median of 13 pips, with top-quarter events seeing 20+ pips. For USDJPY, the median 1-hour move is 10 pips, with top-quarter moves of 21+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has a median 1-hour move of 29 pips, with top-quarter moves of 52+ pips. Direction reliability for EURUSD after past releases stands at 47%.
Recent releases show varied outcomes. On August 26, 2026, the actual figure matched the forecast at 0.2%, resulting in a -15 pip move for EURUSD. The July 30, 2026 release saw an actual 0.1% against a 0.4% forecast, with EURUSD moving +3.8 pips. On June 25, 2026, a 0.3% actual print surpassed the 0.1% forecast, leading to a +25 pip move in EURUSD. The May 28, 2026 release, with an actual 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, saw EURUSD move +8.5 pips.