Core PCE Price Index y/y preview: Consensus matches previous reading
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The Core PCE Price Index y/y for the United States is scheduled for release on September 30, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. This high-impact economic indicator is a primary measure of inflation closely watched by the Federal Reserve. The market consensus anticipates a reading of 3.3%, matching the previous month’s figure of 3.3%.
Historically, this release has generated notable price action across major currency pairs. After past Core PCE Price Index y/y releases, AUDUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 13+ pips. EURUSD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 20+ pips. GBPUSD has shown a median 1-hour move of 14 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 26+ pips. NZDUSD has recorded a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 14+ pips. For USDCAD, the median 1-hour move was 13 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 20+ pips. USDCHF has seen a median 1-hour move of 7 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 13+ pips. USDJPY’s median 1-hour move was 10 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 21+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has historically moved a median of 29 pips in the hour following the release, with top-quarter events moving 52+ pips.
Recent release history shows varying outcomes relative to forecasts. The most recent print on August 26, 2026, saw an actual reading of 3.3% against a forecast of 3.3%, followed by a –15 pip move in EURUSD. In July 2026, the actual was 3.3% compared to a 3.5% forecast, with EURUSD moving +3.8 pips. June 2026 saw an actual of 3.4% matching a 3.4% forecast, and EURUSD moved +25 pips.