Core PCE Price Index y/y - ForexCracked
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United States

Core PCE Price Index y/y USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Wed, Sep 30 12:30 UTC · consensus 3.3% · previous 3.3%  

What this release is

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, PCE, Price Index year over year, y/y, measures the percentage change in the prices of goods and services consumed by individuals, excluding volatile food and energy components, compared to the same month a year prior. This monthly prices sector report is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, bea.gov.

Forex traders closely monitor this release as it is a key indicator of inflation for the United States economy. The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, considers PCE inflation a primary gauge for assessing price stability and guiding monetary policy decisions. Sustained changes in this index can influence expectations for interest rate adjustments, impacting the US Dollar.

Due to its significance for monetary policy, the Core PCE Price Index y/y typically has a high impact on the market. After past releases, the headline figure often drives initial market reactions. Traders also observe any revisions to prior months’ data, which can provide further context on underlying price trends. The market digests this information quickly upon its monthly release.

How hard it hits, measured

120 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
20pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
69pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD5.0p6.3p11p20p
AUDUSD2.8p4.7p7.6p13p
GBPUSD5.6p8.1p14p26p
NZDUSD3.5p4.3p7.6p14p
USDCAD5.6p7.3p13p20p
USDCHF3.7p5.5p7.0p13p
USDJPY6.1p7.0p10p21p
XAUUSD16p19p29p52p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 30 of 57 cases · median -3.7p n=57 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 14 of 28 cases · median -0.2p n=28 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 13 of 22 cases · median +3.0p n=22 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 26, 20263.3%3.3%3.3%—-15p—
Jul 30, 20263.3%3.5%3.4%—+3.8p—
Jun 25, 20263.4%3.4%3.3%—+25p—
May 28, 20263.3%3.1%3.2%—+8.5p—
Apr 30, 20263.2%3.1%3%—-8.8p—
Apr 9, 20263%2.9%3.1%—+3.5p—
Mar 13, 20263.1%2.8%3%—+8.2p—
Feb 20, 20263%2.8%2.8%—-13p—
Jan 22, 20262.8%2.7%2.8%2.7%+14p—
Dec 5, 20252.8%—2.9%2.9%-1.7p—
Sep 26, 20252.9%2.9%2.9%—+2.9p—
Aug 29, 20252.9%2.8%2.8%—+5.3p—
Jul 31, 20252.8%2.6%2.7%2.8%-28p—
Jun 27, 20252.7%2.4%2.5%2.6%+5.0p—
May 30, 20252.5%2.7%2.6%2.7%-20p—
Apr 30, 20252.6%2.9%2.8%3%-1.9p—
Mar 28, 20252.8%2.4%2.6%2.7%+34p—
Feb 28, 20252.6%2.8%2.8%2.9%-0.5p—
Jan 31, 20252.8%2.8%2.8%—-13p—
Dec 20, 20242.8%2.8%2.8%—-5.5p—
Nov 27, 20242.8%2.7%2.7%—+14p—
Oct 31, 20242.7%2.7%2.7%—+6.6p—
Sep 27, 20242.7%2.6%2.6%—+33p—
Aug 30, 20242.6%2.5%2.6%—-23p—

Showing the latest 24 of 120 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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