Core PCE Price Index y/y preview: Consensus points to a slight increase
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The Core PCE Price Index year over year for the US Dollar is scheduled for release on October 29, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. This high impact inflation gauge carries a market consensus forecast of 3.1%, a slight uptick from the previous reading of 3%. As a primary inflation metric for the Federal Reserve, the actual print will be closely scrutinized for its potential influence on future policy considerations.
Historically, this release has generated notable market reactions across major currency pairs and gold. For instance, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 20+ pips. GBPUSD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 13 pips, with top-quarter events seeing 26+ pips. USDJPY has typically moved a median of 10 pips in the hour following the release, with top-quarter moves exceeding 21 pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 29 pips, with top-quarter reactions surpassing 51 pips. These figures are based on over 116 to 121 releases since 2015.
Recent releases have shown varied outcomes relative to forecasts. The September 2026 print, released on September 30, 2026, registered 3% against a forecast of 3.3%, with EURUSD moving +2.1 pips in the hour. The August 2026 print, released on August 26, 2026, was 3.3% matching the 3.3% forecast, and EURUSD moved -15 pips. The July 2026 print, released on July 30, 2026, came in at 3.3% against a 3.5% forecast, resulting in a +3.8 pips EURUSD move.