Core PCE Price Index y/y preview: Consensus matches previous reading
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The Core PCE Price Index year over year for the US is set for release on August 26 at 12:30 UTC. This high impact data point is a key inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 3.3%, matching the previous month’s figure of 3.3%. A deviation from this consensus could influence market expectations regarding future monetary policy.
Historically, this release has generated notable volatility across major currency pairs. On average, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 20+ pips across 119 events since 2015. GBPUSD typically experiences a median 1-hour move of 13 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 26+ pips over 119 releases. USDCAD has shown a median 1-hour move of 13 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 21+ pips across 119 events. USDJPY has a median 1-hour move of 10 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 21+ pips over 114 releases. Gold, XAUUSD, has seen a median 1-hour move of 29 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 50+ pips across 118 releases. AUDUSD and NZDUSD both recorded median 1-hour moves of 8 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 14+ pips over 118 releases each. USDCHF has a median 1-hour move of 7 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 13+ pips over 115 releases.
Recent prints show varying outcomes relative to forecasts. The July 2026 release came in at 3.3% against a forecast of 3.5%, resulting in a +3.8 pip EURUSD 1-hour move. In June 2026, the actual 3.4% matched the 3.4% forecast, with EURUSD moving +25 pips. The May 2026 reading was 3.3% compared to a 3.1% forecast, leading to an +8.5 pip EURUSD move.