Core PCE Price Index y/y preview: Inflation data in focus
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index year over year is scheduled for release on July 30, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. This inflation gauge is closely watched by the Federal Reserve for its monetary policy decisions. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 3.5%, which would mark an increase from the previous month’s 3.4%.
Historically, this release has shown a high impact on FX markets. Our data, spanning over 110 releases since 2015, indicates significant price action. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move has been 11 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 20+ pips. GBPUSD has typically seen a median 1-hour move of 13 pips, with top-quarter events moving 26+ pips. USDCAD has a median 1-hour move of 13 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 21+ pips. USDJPY has registered a median 1-hour move of 10 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 21+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 29 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 50+ pips.
Recent Core PCE Price Index y/y prints have varied. The June 2026 release came in at 3.4%, matching the forecast of 3.4%, and was followed by a +25 pips EURUSD 1-hour move. In May 2026, the actual was 3.3% against a 3.1% forecast, leading to a +8.5 pips EURUSD 1-hour move. The April 2026 release saw an actual of 3.2% versus a 3.1% forecast, with EURUSD moving -8.8 pips in the hour following.