CPI m/m (MXN) comes in at 0.2% against 0.14% consensus

Mexico’s Consumer Price Index month over month, CPI m/m, was reported at 0.2%. This figure came in above the analyst consensus expectation of 0.14%. The actual print represents a 42.9% surprise relative to the consensus. The previous month’s CPI m/m reading was 0.03%.

Following the release, USDMXN moved +7.0 pips within five minutes. Fifteen minutes after the data, USDMXN was trading -12 pips from its pre-release level. Historically, USDMXN has shown a median one-hour move of 55 pips after past CPI m/m releases. Top-quarter releases have seen moves of 249 pips or more, based on three releases since 2015. The measured market reaction so far is small relative to these typical historical moves. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.