CPI y/y (EUR) preview: Consensus points to slight increase
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
The Eurozone will release its annual Consumer Price Index, CPI y/y, on July 31 at 09:00 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 2.9%, a modest increase from the previous month’s 2.8%. This inflation data is a high-impact release, closely watched by market participants for insights into the European Central Bank’s monetary policy outlook. A print aligning with or deviating from consensus could influence expectations regarding future interest rate decisions.
Historically, this release has generated notable price movements across various EUR pairs. For EURAUD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 9 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 17+ pips. EURCAD has shown a median 1-hour move of 7 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 14+ pips. EURCHF and EURGBP have both recorded median 1-hour moves of 5 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 10+ pips. Similarly, EURJPY has seen a median 1-hour move of 7 pips, and top-quarter releases moving 14+ pips. EURNZD exhibits a median 1-hour move of 10 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 20+ pips. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move has been 5 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 10+ pips.
Recent CPI y/y releases have shown varied outcomes compared to forecasts. The July 17, 2026 release came in at 2.8% against a forecast of 3%, resulting in a -1.6 pip EURUSD 1-hour move. On July 1, 2026, the actual was 3% versus a 2.1% forecast, with EURUSD moving -8.4 pips. The June 17, 2026 print was 3.2% against a 2.6% forecast, leading to a +2.1 pip EURUSD 1-hour move. The April 30, 2026 release was 1.9% against a 2.3% forecast, resulting in a +15 pip EURUSD 1-hour move.