CPI y/y (EUR) preview: Market consensus matches previous reading
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
The Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) year over year data is scheduled for release on September 17 at 09:00 UTC. This is considered a High impact event for the Euro. Market consensus anticipates the reading to remain at 2.8%, matching the previous month’s figure of 2.8%. This release is closely watched for insights into inflation trends within the Eurozone, which can influence European Central Bank policy expectations.
Historically, this release has generated notable volatility across EUR pairs. For EURAUD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 9 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 16+ pips over 243 releases since 2015. EURNZD has shown a median 1-hour move of 10 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 20+ pips over 238 releases. Other pairs like EURCAD and EURJPY have typically seen median 1-hour moves of 7 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 14+ pips over 243 and 244 releases respectively. EURCHF, EURGBP, and EURUSD have recorded median 1-hour moves of 5 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 10+ pips over 240, 241, and 243 releases respectively. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this event.
Recent CPI y/y prints have shown some variability. On September 1, 2026, the actual reading was 2.8% against a forecast of 3.1%, resulting in a -0.3 pip EURUSD 1-hour move. The August 19, 2026 release saw an actual 2.9% against a 3.2% forecast, with EURUSD moving +8.1 pips. On July 31, 2026, the actual was 3.2% compared to a 2.9% forecast, leading to an -18 pip EURUSD 1-hour move. Earlier, on July 17, 2026, the actual was 2.8% against a 3% forecast, and EURUSD moved -1.6 pips. On July 1, 2026, an actual of 3% against a 2.1% forecast resulted in an -8.4 pip EURUSD move. The June 17, 2026 release showed an actual of 3.2% against a 2.6% forecast, with EURUSD moving +2.1 pips.