ECB Rate Decision preview: Consensus expects no change
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
The European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 13:15 UTC. Market consensus currently anticipates the main refinancing operations rate to remain unchanged at 2.65%, matching the previous reading. This high-impact event is closely watched by traders for potential shifts in monetary policy, even when no change is expected.
Historically, ECB Interest Rate Decisions have triggered notable price movements across EUR crosses. For instance, after past releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 25 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 39+ pips. Similarly, EURAUD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 28 pips, and EURNZD a median move of 34 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 51 pips and 57 pips respectively. Other pairs like EURCAD and EURJPY have shown median 1-hour moves of 30 pips and 28 pips, while EURGBP and EURCHF typically see smaller median moves of 14 pips and 9 pips.
Looking at recent history, the ECB maintained the rate at 2.65% in September 2026, which matched the forecast, and EURUSD moved -15 pips in the hour following. Prior to that, the July 2026 decision saw the rate at 2.4%, also matching the forecast, with EURUSD moving -26 pips. In June 2026, the rate was 2.4%, and EURUSD moved -7.9 pips. The March and February 2026 decisions, both at 2.15%, saw EURUSD move +25 pips and +27 pips respectively.