ECB Main Refinancing Rate - ForexCracked
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Euro area · Rates

ECB Main Refinancing Rate EUR

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 29 13:15 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 2.65%  

What this release is

The European Central Bank, ECB, sets the Main Refinancing Operations Rate. This rate is the primary interest rate at which commercial banks can borrow funds from the ECB for a one-week period. It serves as a key tool for the ECB to implement its monetary policy across the Eurozone.

Forex traders monitor this rate closely because it influences the cost of money and credit within the Eurozone economy. Changes to the Main Refinancing Rate can affect the relative attractiveness of holding Euro-denominated assets, impacting capital flows. After past changes, the Euro’s valuation has often seen significant movements, reflecting shifts in monetary policy expectations.

The market typically assigns a High impact rating to this release. The focus is primarily on the announced rate itself. The announcement is often followed by a press conference and a monetary policy statement from the ECB, which provide further context on the central bank’s economic outlook and future policy intentions. Market reactions can unfold as these additional communications are digested.

How hard it hits, measured

82 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
25pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
39pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
136pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD7.3p8.8p25p39p
EURAUD10.0p11p28p51p
EURCAD8.7p9.4p30p48p
EURCHF3.8p5.3p9.0p22p
EURGBP4.6p5.5p14p21p
EURJPY8.3p9.1p28p43p
EURNZD12p14p34p57p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=2 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 10, 20262.65%2.65%2.4%—-15p—
Jul 23, 20262.4%2.40%2.4%—-26p—
Jun 11, 20262.4%—2.15%—-7.9p—
Apr 30, 20262.15%—2.15%—-11p—
Mar 19, 20262.15%—2.15%—+25p—
Feb 5, 20262.15%—2.15%—+27p—
Dec 18, 20252.15%—2.15%—+18p—
Oct 30, 20252.15%—2.15%—+25p—
Sep 11, 20252.15%—2.15%—+44p—
Jul 24, 20252.15%—2.15%—+4.6p—
Jun 5, 20252.15%—2.4%—+38p—
Apr 17, 20252.4%—2.65%—-5.2p—
Mar 6, 20252.65%—2.9%—+31p—
Jan 30, 20252.9%—3.15%—+33p—
Dec 12, 20243.15%—3.4%—-7.5p—
Oct 17, 20243.4%—3.65%—-41p—
Sep 12, 20243.65%—4.25%—+22p—
Jul 18, 20244.25%—4.25%—-6.8p—
Jun 6, 20244.25%—4.5%—+14p—
Apr 11, 20244.5%—4.5%—+11p—
Mar 7, 20244.5%—4.5%—-6.8p—
Jan 25, 20244.5%—4.5%—-29p—
Dec 14, 20234.5%—4.5%—+59p—
Oct 26, 20234.5%—4.5%—+15p—

Showing the latest 24 of 82 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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