ECB Rate Decision preview: Consensus points to a hike from 2.40% to 2.65%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its latest Interest Rate Decision on September 10, 2026, at 12:15 UTC. Market consensus anticipates the main refinancing rate will increase to 2.65%, up from the previous reading of 2.40%. This event is rated as having a High impact on the market, reflecting its potential to influence the Euro’s valuation. Traders will be watching closely for any deviation from the consensus forecast, as well as the accompanying monetary policy statement.
Historically, the ECB Interest Rate Decision has generated notable price movements across Euro currency pairs. Over 81 releases since 2015, EURAUD has seen a median 1-hour move of 28 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 52+ pips. EURCAD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 31 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 48+ pips over the same period. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move has been 26 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 39+ pips across 80 releases. Other pairs like EURJPY and EURNZD have also shown significant volatility, with median 1-hour moves of 27 pips and 34 pips respectively. EURCHF and EURGBP typically show smaller median moves of 9 pips and 14 pips.
Recent releases show varying reactions in EURUSD. The July 23, 2026, decision, where the actual rate was 2.4% matching the forecast, saw EURUSD move -26 pips in one hour. The June 11, 2026, release, also at 2.4%, resulted in a -7.9 pips move. Earlier in 2026, decisions with actual rates of 2.15% saw EURUSD moves ranging from -11 pips to +27 pips.