ECB Rate Decision preview: Market expects steady rates
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
The European Central Bank is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on July 23, 2026, at 12:15 UTC. Market consensus anticipates the main refinancing rate will remain unchanged at 2.40%, matching the previous reading. This release is rated as having a high impact on the market, making any deviation from expectations a potential catalyst for volatility in Euro crosses.
Historically, ECB Interest Rate Decisions have generated notable price action across major EUR pairs. Over 80 releases since 2015, EURAUD has seen a median 1-hour move of 28 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 52+ pips. Similarly, EURCAD has recorded a median 1-hour move of 31 pips, with top-quarter events reaching 48+ pips. EURUSD typically sees a median 1-hour move of 25 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 39+ pips. Other pairs like EURNZD have shown a median move of 34 pips, and EURJPY 28 pips. EURGBP and EURCHF tend to exhibit smaller median moves, at 14 pips and 9 pips respectively.
Recent releases show varied reactions in EURUSD. The June 11, 2026, decision, where the actual rate was 2.4%, saw a -7.9 pips move in EURUSD within one hour. Prior to that, the April 30, 2026, release with an actual rate of 2.15% resulted in a -11 pips move. Earlier prints, such as March 19, 2026, February 05, 2026, December 18, 2025, and October 30, 2025, all with an actual rate of 2.15%, saw one-hour EURUSD moves of +25 pips, +27 pips, +18 pips, and +25 pips respectively.