EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change preview: consensus points to a sixth-straight-week-style draw near -2.481M
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change is due on 2026-11-04 at 15:30 UTC and carries a High impact rating. Consensus is -2.481M, a larger draw than the previous reading of -1.892M. A negative number means crude inventories fell over the week. The gap between the forecast and the prior print is about 0.6M barrels, so the focus will be on whether the actual figure lands near, above or below that expectation.
Our own price feed shows how hard this release has hit the majors in the hour after publication. The median 1-hour move is 8 pips on EURUSD, 11 pips on GBPUSD, 10 pips on USDCAD and 8 pips on USDJPY. AUDUSD, USDCHF and NZDUSD have been quieter, at 7, 7 and 6 pips. XAUUSD has a median 1-hour move of 23 pips. In the top quarter of releases, moves reached 19+ pips on GBPUSD, 18+ pips on USDCAD, 15+ pips on USDJPY, 14+ pips on EURUSD and 47+ pips on XAUUSD. These figures cover 517 to 535 releases since 2015, depending on the pair.
Recent prints have swung widely against forecasts. On Oct 28 the actual was -1.892M versus a forecast of -2.067M, and EURUSD moved +6.5 pips in the following hour. On Oct 21 the actual was -3.06M against -4.804M, with EURUSD at -0.4 pips. On Oct 15 the actual was -8.557M against a forecast of -0.831M, with EURUSD at +4.2 pips. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this release.