EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - ForexCracked
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United States

EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Sep 10 16:00 UTC · consensus 7.559M · previous -4.45M  

What this release is

The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change report, published weekly by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (eia.gov), measures the week-over-week change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in commercial inventories in the United States. This release provides insight into the business sector’s supply and demand dynamics for crude oil.

Forex traders monitor this report because crude oil is a globally significant commodity, frequently denominated in U.S. dollars. Significant shifts in crude oil inventories can influence global oil prices. These price movements can affect inflation expectations, economic activity, and trade balances, which in turn can impact the valuation of the U.S. dollar.

After past releases, market participants have typically focused on the headline change in crude oil stocks. The weekly cadence of this report often leads to swift market reactions as traders adjust positions based on the reported inventory shifts, reflecting the high typical impact rating of this data point.

How hard it hits, measured

528 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
8pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
14pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
116pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.5p4.4p7.9p14p
AUDUSD2.1p3.5p6.8p12p
GBPUSD3.9p5.9p11p19p
NZDUSD1.9p3.3p6.1p10p
USDCAD4.0p6.3p10p18p
USDCHF2.3p4.0p6.8p12p
USDJPY2.7p4.1p8.2p15p
XAUUSD8.0p13p22p46p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 120 of 231 cases · median +0.8p n=231 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 118 of 227 cases · median +0.2p n=227 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=4 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 2, 2026-4.45M5.822M0.095M+2.4p
Aug 26, 20260.095M5.39M4.405M+8.4p
Aug 19, 20264.405M6.913M17.423M-12p
Aug 12, 202617.423M6.059M2.479M-8.9p
Aug 5, 20262.479M-1.257M-7.167M-4.6p
Jul 29, 2026-7.167M5.131M2.01M-15p
Jul 22, 20262.01M1.978M-1.692M+1.9p
Jul 15, 2026-1.692M1.001M2.998M+6.6p
Jul 8, 20262.998M-1.504M-3.775M
Jul 1, 2026-3.775M-3.008M-6.088M+0.7p
Jun 24, 2026-6.088M-4.715M-8.263M+11p
Jun 17, 2026-8.263M-5.391M-7.227M0.0p
Jun 10, 2026-7.227M-7.304M-7.974M-2.5p
Jun 3, 2026-7.974M-6.013M-3.327M+3.7p
May 28, 2026-3.327M-5.506M-7.863M+8.7p
May 20, 2026-7.863M-17.631M-4.306M+12p
May 13, 2026-4.306M-5.433M-2.313M+0.8p
May 6, 2026-2.313M3.891M-6.234M+6.2p
Apr 29, 2026-6.234M-2.825M1.925M+1.7p
Apr 22, 20261.925M0.705M-0.913M-12p
Apr 15, 2026-0.913M9.761M3.081M+4.8p
Apr 8, 20263.081M3.234M5.451M-8.9p
Apr 1, 20265.451M2.877M6.926M-8.0p
Mar 25, 20266.926M0.07M6.156M-6.6p

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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