EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change preview: Consensus points to further inventory build
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
Traders will monitor the upcoming EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change release scheduled for October 7, 2026, at 14:30 UTC. This high impact event provides data on weekly crude oil inventory levels in the United States. The market consensus anticipates an increase of 1.07M barrels, following the previous week’s reported increase of 0.922M barrels. This metric is closely watched as it reflects demand and supply dynamics, influencing global oil prices and related currency pairs.
Historically, this release has often led to notable price movements across major currency pairs and gold. Over 527 releases since 2015, AUDUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 7 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 12+ pips. EURUSD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, with top-quarter events moving 14+ pips over 529 releases. GBPUSD has shown a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 19+ pips over 531 releases. USDCAD has recorded a median 1-hour move of 10 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 18+ pips over 531 releases. Gold, XAUUSD, has seen a median 1-hour move of 23 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 47+ pips over 525 releases. Directional reliability statistics for this event are not yet available.
Recent releases have shown varied outcomes compared to forecasts. On September 30, 2026, the actual change was 0.922M against a forecast of -0.701M, with EURUSD moving +4.3 pips in the hour following. The September 23, 2026, release saw an actual 2.969M increase versus a 0.895M forecast, resulting in a +7.8 pips EURUSD 1-hour move.