EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change preview: Consensus points to inventory build

The upcoming EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change report is scheduled for 2026-09-16 at 14:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates an increase of 6.729M barrels. This contrasts with the previous reading, which showed a draw of -0.391M barrels. This release is rated as having a high impact on the market.

Historically, this release has generated notable price movements across various currency pairs. For AUDUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 7 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 12+ pips. EURUSD has observed a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 14+ pips. GBPUSD typically sees a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, and 19+ pips for top-quarter events. NZDUSD has shown a median 1-hour move of 6 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 10+ pips. USDCAD has a median 1-hour move of 10 pips, and 18+ pips for top-quarter events. USDCHF has experienced a median 1-hour move of 7 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 12+ pips. USDJPY has a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, and 15+ pips for top-quarter events. For XAUUSD, the median 1-hour move has been 23 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 46+ pips. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.

Recent releases have shown varied outcomes compared to forecasts. The previous actual reading on September 10, 2026, was -0.391M against a forecast of 7.559M. Prior to that, on September 2, 2026, the actual was -4.45M compared to a forecast of 5.822M. On August 26, 2026, the actual was 0.095M with a forecast of 5.39M. The August 19, 2026, release saw an actual of 4.405M against a forecast of 6.913M.