EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change preview: Consensus points to significant build

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is set to release its latest Crude Oil Stocks Change data on 2026-07-29 at 14:30 UTC. Market consensus forecasts a build of 5.131M barrels, a notable increase from the previous reading of 2.01M. This release is rated as high impact due to its influence on crude oil prices, which can in turn affect the US Dollar and commodity-linked currencies.

Historically, this release has generated significant market movement. Based on our price feed, measured over 500+ releases since 2015, the median 1-hour move for AUDUSD has been 7 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing 12+ pips. EURUSD typically moves 8 pips (median) and 14+ pips (top-quarter). GBPUSD shows a median move of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 19+ pips. NZDUSD has a median 1-hour move of 6 pips, and top-quarter releases move 10+ pips. USDCAD has seen a median 10 pips move, with top-quarter releases moving 18+ pips. USDCHF typically moves 7 pips (median) and 12+ pips (top-quarter), while USDJPY has a median move of 8 pips and top-quarter releases move 15+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 45+ pips. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.

Recent releases have shown varied inventory changes. The prior reading on July 22, 2026, reported an actual build of 2.01M against a forecast of 1.978M, with EURUSD moving +1.9 pips in the hour after. Before that, July 15 saw a draw of -1.692M against a forecast build, and June 24 recorded a draw of -6.088M.