EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change preview: Focus on inventory shifts

The upcoming EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change report is scheduled for August 19, 2026, at 14:30 UTC. This release measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by US commercial firms. The market consensus anticipates a build of 6.913M barrels, a notable decrease from the previous reading of 17.423M barrels. Changes in crude oil inventories can influence oil prices, which in turn may affect the US dollar due to the commodity’s global significance.

Historically, this release carries a High impact rating. Our data, compiled from over 500 releases since 2015, shows significant price movements following this event. For example, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 14+ pips. GBPUSD typically experiences a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter events moving 19+ pips. USDCAD has a median 1-hour move of 10 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 18+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter releases exceeding 46+ pips. Other pairs like AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCHF, and USDJPY also show median 1-hour moves ranging from 6 pips to 8 pips. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.

Recent releases have shown varied outcomes. The most recent actual reading was a build of 17.423M barrels, following a forecast of 6.059M. Prior to that, actuals included a build of 2.479M and a draw of -7.167M. The EURUSD 1-hour moves after these releases have ranged, for instance, from a –8.9 pips move after the 17.423M print to a –15 pips move after the -7.167M print.