EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change preview: Market anticipates smaller inventory draw

Traders are preparing for the upcoming EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, at 14:30 UTC. This release carries a High impact rating. Market consensus anticipates a draw of -4.804 million barrels for the latest period. This forecast follows the previous reading, which showed a larger draw of -8.557 million barrels. The change in crude oil inventories is closely watched for its implications on supply and demand dynamics in the energy market.

Historically, this release has generated notable price movements across major currency pairs and gold. Our data indicates that after past EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 14+ pips. GBPUSD typically experiences a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter events moving 19+ pips. USDCAD has a median 1-hour move of 10 pips, and top-quarter releases move 18+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 23 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 46+ pips. Other pairs like AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCHF, and USDJPY have also shown median 1-hour moves ranging from 6 to 8 pips. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this event.

Recent releases have shown varied inventory changes. The print on October 15, 2026, recorded an actual draw of -8.557 million barrels against a forecast of -0.831 million barrels, leading to a +4.2 pips 1-hour move in EURUSD. The October 7, 2026, release saw a draw of -3.186 million barrels compared to a forecast of 1.07 million barrels, with EURUSD moving +2.2 pips. On September 30, 2026, an increase of 0.922 million barrels was reported against a forecast of -0.701 million barrels, resulting in a +4.3 pips 1-hour move for EURUSD.