EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change preview: Market expects a draw of 0.701M barrels
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change report is set for release on September 30, 2026, at 14:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a draw of -0.701M barrels, a notable shift from the previous reading of a 2.969M barrel build. This release carries a High impact rating, suggesting significant market attention for crude oil inventories.
Historically, this release has generated considerable price action across major currency pairs and gold. Our data, spanning over 500 releases since 2015, shows EURUSD typically moves a median of 8 pips within one hour, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 14+ pips. GBPUSD has a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, reaching 19+ pips in its top-quarter events. USDCAD typically sees a median move of 10 pips, extending to 18+ pips for top-quarter releases. Gold, XAUUSD, shows a median 1-hour move of 23 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 46+ pips. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.
Recent releases have shown varied outcomes. The September 23, 2026, report showed an actual build of 2.969M barrels against a forecast of 0.895M, leading to a +7.8 pip EURUSD 1-hour move. Prior to that, the September 16 release saw an actual draw of -0.64M barrels, significantly below the 6.729M forecast, with EURUSD moving -0.3 pips. The August 19 release registered a build of 4.405M barrels against a 6.913M forecast, resulting in a -12 pip EURUSD 1-hour move.