EIA Crude Oil Stocks preview: Consensus points to significant build

The upcoming EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change report is scheduled for release on September 10 at 16:00 UTC. Market analysts have reached a consensus forecast of a 7.559M increase in crude oil inventories. This projection marks a significant shift from the prior reading, which registered a draw of -4.45M. This release carries a high impact rating, indicating its potential to influence market sentiment and price action.

Historically, this release has often led to notable price movements across major currency pairs. Our data indicates that after past releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 14+ pips. GBPUSD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter events reaching 19+ pips. USDCAD typically moves 10 pips on average in the hour following the release, with stronger reactions exceeding 18+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 46+ pips. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this series due to insufficient live-captured releases with consensus data.

Recent history shows variability in actual outcomes compared to forecasts. The most recent report, on September 2, 2026, showed an actual draw of -4.45M against a forecast of 5.822M, leading to a +2.4 pips EURUSD 1-hour move. The release prior to that, on August 26, 2026, reported an actual build of 0.095M when 5.39M was forecast, with EURUSD moving +8.4 pips in the subsequent hour. On August 19, 2026, an actual build of 4.405M against a forecast of 6.913M resulted in a -12 pips EURUSD 1-hour move.