EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change comes in at 1.176M against -1.447M consensus

The EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change reported an increase of 1.176M barrels. This figure significantly exceeded market expectations, which had anticipated a decrease of -1.447M barrels. The actual print represented a 181.3% surprise compared to the consensus forecast. The previous reading was a decrease of -1.314M barrels.

Following the release, market reactions were observed across several pairs. USDCAD moved -5.0 pips 15 minutes after the release, while GBPUSD gained 7.1 pips. EURUSD was up 4.8 pips, and AUDUSD saw a 3.1 pip increase. NZDUSD moved 2.0 pips higher, and USDJPY was down -4.6 pips. USDCHF showed a minor change of -0.1 pips. Gold, XAUUSD, reacted with a +47 pip gain 15 minutes post-release. For many pairs, these initial moves are relatively small compared to their historical median 1-hour moves, such as AUDUSD’s median of 7 pips or EURUSD’s 8 pips. However, XAUUSD’s +47 pip move is comparable to its top-quarter releases, which typically move 46+ pips.