EUR CPI y/y preview: Consensus holds steady at 3.2%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
The Eurozone is set to release its Consumer Price Index, year over year, on August 19, 2026, at 09:00 UTC. Market consensus anticipates the annual inflation rate to hold steady at 3.2%, aligning with the previous reading. This release carries a High impact rating, as inflation data is a key indicator for the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions and broader economic health.
Historically, this release has often generated notable price movements across various EUR currency pairs. EURAUD has recorded a median 1-hour move of 9 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 17+ pips over 241 releases since 2015. EURNZD has shown a median 1-hour move of 10 pips, and its top-quarter releases have moved 20+ pips across 236 releases. EURUSD, measured over 241 releases, typically experiences a median 1-hour move of 5 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 10+ pips. Other pairs like EURCAD, EURCHF, EURGBP, and EURJPY have also shown median 1-hour moves ranging from 5 pips to 8 pips. Directional reliability statistics for this event are not yet available.
Recent CPI releases have shown varied outcomes relative to market forecasts. The July 31, 2026 release saw an actual 3.2% against a forecast of 2.9%, followed by a -18 pips move in EURUSD over one hour. On July 17, 2026, the actual was 2.8% compared to a 3% forecast, resulting in a -1.6 pips EURUSD move. The June 17, 2026 release had an actual 3.2% against a 2.6% forecast, which was followed by a +2.1 pips move in EURUSD.