Fed Interest Rate Decision preview: Consensus expects no change
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest Interest Rate Decision on July 29 at 18:00 UTC. Market consensus anticipates the Fed will maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. This would mark no change from the previous reading of 3.75%. As a high-impact event, any deviation from this widely expected outcome, or significant shifts in the accompanying statement, could lead to notable market movements.
Historically, Fed Interest Rate Decisions have generated substantial volatility across major currency pairs and gold. Our data, spanning since 2015, shows that after these releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 28 pips, with top-quarter events moving 53+ pips. GBPUSD typically sees a median 1-hour move of 32 pips, with top-quarter releases exceeding 55 pips. USDJPY has a median 1-hour move of 26 pips, and top-quarter events have moved 56+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 79 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 155+ pips. Other pairs like AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, and USDCHF also typically experience median 1-hour moves ranging from 21 to 25 pips.
Recent history shows varying reactions to the Fed’s decisions. The June 2026 release, which also held rates at 3.75%, saw EURUSD move -56 pips in the hour following. The April 2026 decision, also at 3.75%, resulted in a -15 pips move for EURUSD. In October 2025, when the actual rate was 4%, EURUSD moved -53 pips.