Federal Funds Rate - ForexCracked
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United States · Rates

Federal Funds Rate USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Wed, Sep 16 18:00 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 3.75%  

What this release is

The Federal Funds Rate is the target interest rate for overnight borrowing and lending of reserves among commercial banks in the United States. This rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC, a policy-making body of the US Federal Reserve System.

Forex traders closely monitor the Federal Funds Rate because it is the primary tool for US monetary policy. Adjustments to this rate influence broader interest rates across the economy, affecting borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Changes can impact the relative attractiveness of the US dollar for international investors, influencing its valuation against other currencies.

The market typically focuses on the announced rate decision itself, along with any accompanying statements or press conferences from the Federal Reserve. Due to its direct link to monetary policy, this release usually has a High impact on currency markets. The market digests not only the rate change but also the forward guidance on future policy direction.

How hard it hits, measured

81 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
28pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
54pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
122pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD17p17p28p54p
AUDUSD14p14p25p38p
GBPUSD16p20p33p56p
NZDUSD11p14p24p37p
USDCAD14p16p22p48p
USDCHF13p17p22p41p
USDJPY15p19p26p56p
XAUUSD33p38p79p161p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Jul 29, 20263.75%3.75%3.75%—+55pStory
Jun 17, 20263.75%—3.75%—-56p—
Apr 29, 20263.75%—3.75%—-15p—
Mar 18, 20263.75%—3.75%—-39p—
Jan 28, 20263.75%—3.75%—+20p—
Dec 10, 20253.75%—4%—+23p—
Oct 29, 20254%—4.25%—-53p—
Sep 17, 20254.25%—4.5%—-18p—
Jul 30, 20254.5%—4.5%—-56p—
Jun 18, 20254.5%—4.5%—-22p—
May 7, 20254.5%—4.5%—-7.1p—
Mar 19, 20254.5%—4.5%—+39p—
Jan 29, 20254.5%—4.5%—-3.6p—
Dec 18, 20244.5%—4.75%—-109p—
Nov 7, 20244.75%—5%—-16p—
Sep 18, 20245%—5.5%—+25p—
Jul 31, 20245.5%—5.5%—+11p—
Jun 12, 20245.5%—5.5%—-27p—
May 1, 20245.5%—5.5%—+54p—
Mar 20, 20245.5%—5.5%—+50p—
Jan 31, 20245.5%—5.5%—-5.5p—
Dec 13, 20235.5%—5.5%—+102p—
Nov 1, 20235.5%—5.5%—+8.3p—
Sep 20, 20235.5%—5.5%—-40p—

Showing the latest 24 of 82 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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