Fed Rate Decision preview: Consensus holds at 4.00%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision on October 28 at 18:00 UTC. This highly anticipated event carries a high impact rating. Market consensus currently projects the Fed to maintain the interest rate at 4.00%, aligning with the previous reading of 4.00%. Any deviation from this consensus, or significant shifts in the accompanying statement, could prompt notable market movements.
Historically, Fed Interest Rate Decisions have generated substantial volatility across major currency pairs and gold. Our data shows that EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 28 pips after past releases, with top-quarter events moving 54+ pips. GBPUSD typically experiences a median 1-hour move of 34 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 56 pips. USDJPY has a median 1-hour move of 27 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 56+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 79 pips, with top-quarter events moving 171+ pips. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this release.
Recent Fed decisions have also led to significant price action. On September 16, 2026, the actual rate was 3.75% against a forecast of 4.00%, resulting in a -65 pips 1-hour move for EURUSD. The July 29, 2026, release saw an actual 3.75% matching the forecast, with EURUSD moving +55 pips in one hour. In June 2026, an actual rate of 3.75% led to a -56 pips move for EURUSD.