Federal Budget Balance comes in at 432.3B against -310.4B consensus
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The Federal Budget Balance for August 2026 was reported at a surplus of 432.3B USD. This figure significantly exceeded market expectations, which had a consensus forecast of a -310.4B USD deficit. The actual result represents a 239.3% surprise compared to the consensus. The previous month’s balance was a deficit of -120.3B USD.
Following the release, market reactions were mixed across major currency pairs and gold after 15 minutes. AUDUSD was up 1.4 pips, EURUSD rose 2.0 pips, GBPUSD gained 1.1 pips, and NZDUSD increased by 2.0 pips. USDCAD moved down 3.6 pips, USDCHF was down 1.2 pips, and USDJPY fell 0.7 pips. XAUUSD saw a notable increase of 69 pips. For most currency pairs, these initial moves are relatively small compared to their median 1-hour moves, which typically range from 4 to 8 pips. XAUUSD’s 69 pip move is larger than its median 1-hour move of 15 pips and its top-quarter move of 32+ pips.