GBP GDP y/y preview: Consensus unchanged at 1.2%

The UK is set to release its latest GDP year over year data on September 30 at 06:00 UTC. This is considered a high impact event for the British Pound. Market consensus forecasts a reading of 1.2%, which is unchanged from the previous reading of 1.2%. GDP figures provide a broad measure of economic activity and are closely watched for insights into the health of the UK economy.

Historically, this release has generated notable volatility across GBP pairs. Our data, covering 86 to 88 releases since 2015, shows median 1-hour moves of 5 pips for EURGBP and 12 pips for GBPUSD. Other pairs typically see larger median moves, such as 16 pips for GBPAUD and GBPJPY, 12 pips for GBPCAD, 10 pips for GBPCHF, and 19 pips for GBPNZD. For top-quarter releases, moves have been even larger, including 12+ pips for EURGBP, 26+ pips for GBPAUD, 21+ pips for GBPCAD, 18+ pips for GBPCHF, 27+ pips for GBPJPY, 30+ pips for GBPNZD, and 17+ pips for GBPUSD. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this event.

Looking at recent releases, the actual GDP y/y print in August 2026 was 1.2%, leading to a -11 pip 1-hour move in GBPUSD. Prior to that, the May 2026 release saw an actual of 1.1%, with GBPUSD moving +12 pips in the hour following. The March 2026 print was 1%, resulting in a +3.9 pip GBPUSD move. In February 2026, an actual of 1% was followed by a -5.8 pip move. Late 2025 releases included 1.3% in December, with a -4.0 pip move, and 1.3% in November, with a +3.9 pip move.