GDP y/y - ForexCracked
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United Kingdom

GDP y/y GBP

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Wed, Sep 30 06:00 UTC · consensus 1.2% · previous 1.2%  

What this release is

Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, measures the total value of goods and services produced within an economy. The year-over-year GDP release for the United Kingdom indicates the percentage change in economic output compared to the same quarter of the previous year. This quarterly data, covering the GDP sector, is published by the Office for National Statistics, available on ons.gov.uk.

Forex traders closely monitor UK GDP growth as a primary gauge of the nation’s economic health. Stronger than anticipated GDP growth can suggest an economy operating at or near its potential, potentially leading the Bank of England to consider tightening monetary policy, which can support the British Pound. Conversely, weaker growth might prompt expectations of looser policy or rate cuts, which could weigh on the currency.

Following past releases, market attention typically focuses on the headline year-over-year growth figure. Revisions to previous quarters’ data are also observed for their implications on economic trends. The market generally processes this high impact release swiftly, with initial reactions often reflecting the deviation from consensus forecasts.

How hard it hits, measured

88 releases · own feed
Typical GBPUSD move
12pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
17pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
70pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
GBPUSD5.5p9.5p12p17p
EURGBP3.1p3.7p5.3p12p
GBPAUD8.0p9.7p16p26p
GBPCAD5.7p8.1p12p21p
GBPCHF4.0p6.0p10p18p
GBPJPY7.9p10p16p27p
GBPNZD8.0p11p19p30p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus GBPUSD closed the hour higher in 21 of 28 cases · median +8.2p n=28 live
Miss below consensus GBPUSD closed the hour higher in 17 of 27 cases · median +7.2p n=27 live
In line within the surprise band GBPUSD closed the hour lower in 6 of 10 cases · median -7.2p n=10 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toGBPUSD 1h
Aug 13, 20261.2%1.1%1.1%0.9%-11p—
May 14, 20261.1%—1%1%+12p—
Mar 31, 20261%—1%1.2%+3.9p—
Feb 12, 20261%—1.3%1.2%-5.8p—
Dec 22, 20251.3%—1.3%1.4%-4.0p—
Nov 13, 20251.3%—1.4%1.4%+3.9p—
Sep 30, 20251.4%—1.2%1.7%+7.3p—
Aug 14, 20251.2%—1.3%1.3%+6.8p—
Jun 30, 20251.3%—1.3%1.3%+6.9p—
May 15, 20251.3%1.1%1.5%1.5%+31p—
Mar 28, 20251.5%—1.4%1.4%0.0p—
Feb 13, 20251.4%0.9%0.9%1%+22p—
Dec 23, 20240.9%1%1%—-8.9p—
Nov 15, 20241%0.6%0.7%—-16p—
Sep 30, 20240.7%0.9%0.9%—-5.0p—
Aug 15, 20240.9%-0.3%0.3%0.3%+11p—
Jun 28, 20240.3%—0.2%-0.2%+9.4p—
May 10, 20240.2%—-0.2%-0.2%+19p—
Mar 28, 2024-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%—-12p—
Feb 15, 2024-0.2%0.4%0.3%0.2%-22p—
Dec 22, 20230.3%0.6%0.6%—+11p—
Nov 10, 20230.6%0.5%0.6%—+1.9p—
Sep 29, 20230.6%0.4%0.4%—+23p—
Aug 11, 20230.4%0.2%0.2%—+20p—

Showing the latest 24 of 88 tracked releases.

Reaction = GBPUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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