GDP q/q - ForexCracked
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United Kingdom

GDP q/q GBP

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Nov 12 07:00 UTC · consensus 0.8% · previous 0.5%  

What this release is

Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, measures the total value of goods and services produced by an economy. This quarterly release reports the change in the United Kingdom’s GDP from the previous quarter. The official source for this data is ons.gov.uk.

Forex traders closely monitor GDP as a primary indicator of economic health. A robust economy, as suggested by strong GDP growth, can influence the Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates. Changes in interest rates can affect the attractiveness of the British Pound to international investors, leading to a typical high impact on GBP pricing.

Market participants typically focus on the headline quarter-over-quarter GDP growth figure. Revisions to prior period data are also closely watched, as they can provide additional context on economic trends. The market generally digests this information quickly upon release, reacting to both the initial figures and any subsequent adjustments.

How hard it hits, measured

89 releases · own feed
Typical GBPUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
17pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
70pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
GBPUSD5.7p9.4p11p17p
EURGBP3.1p3.6p5.3p12p
GBPAUD8.3p9.5p16p27p
GBPCAD5.9p8.1p13p21p
GBPCHF4.0p5.9p10p18p
GBPJPY7.9p11p16p26p
GBPNZD7.9p12p19p30p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus GBPUSD closed the hour higher in 25 of 34 cases · median +10p n=34 live
Miss below consensus GBPUSD closed the hour lower in 11 of 22 cases · median -1.6p n=22 live
In line within the surprise band GBPUSD closed the hour higher in 7 of 10 cases · median +3.3p n=10 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toGBPUSD 1h
Sep 30, 20260.5%0.4%0.4%—+10p—
Aug 13, 20260.4%0.3%0.6%—-11p—
May 14, 20260.6%—0.1%0.2%+12p—
Mar 31, 20260.1%—0.1%0.1%+3.9p—
Feb 12, 20260.1%—0.1%0.1%-5.8p—
Dec 22, 20250.1%—0.1%0.2%-4.0p—
Nov 13, 20250.1%—0.3%0.3%+3.9p—
Sep 30, 20250.3%—0.3%0.7%+7.3p—
Aug 14, 20250.3%—0.7%0.7%+6.8p—
Jun 30, 20250.7%—0.7%0.7%+6.9p—
May 15, 20250.7%0%0.1%—+31p—
Mar 28, 20250.1%—0.1%0.1%0.0p—
Feb 13, 20250.1%-0.3%0%—+22p—
Dec 23, 20240%0.1%0.1%—-8.9p—
Nov 15, 20240.1%0%0.5%—-16p—
Sep 30, 20240.5%0.6%0.6%—-5.0p—
Aug 15, 20240.6%-0.1%0.7%0.7%+11p—
Jun 28, 20240.7%—0.6%-0.3%+9.4p—
May 10, 20240.6%—-0.3%-0.3%+19p—
Mar 28, 2024-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%—-12p—
Feb 15, 2024-0.3%0%-0.1%—-22p—
Dec 22, 2023-0.1%0%0%—+11p—
Nov 10, 20230%0%0.2%—+1.9p—
Sep 29, 20230.2%0.2%0.2%—+23p—

Showing the latest 24 of 89 tracked releases.

Reaction = GBPUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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