BoE Official Bank Rate - ForexCracked
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United Kingdom · Rates

BoE Official Bank Rate GBP

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Sep 17 11:00 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 3.75%  

What this release is

The Official Bank Rate is the primary interest rate set by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. It represents the cost of borrowing for commercial banks from the central bank, influencing lending rates across the United Kingdom economy.

Forex traders monitor this rate closely because it is a key determinant of the UK’s monetary policy stance. Changes to the Official Bank Rate directly impact the attractiveness of holding sterling assets relative to other currencies, influencing capital flows and the value of the British Pound.

The market typically focuses on the announced rate decision and any accompanying statements from the Monetary Policy Committee. Unexpected changes to the rate or shifts in the committee’s forward guidance can lead to significant market reactions. This series has a typical impact rating of High on the British Pound.

How hard it hits, measured

83 releases · own feed
Typical GBPUSD move
30pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
61pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
153pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
GBPUSD26p26p30p61p
EURGBP18p17p18p37p
GBPAUD38p39p41p83p
GBPCAD35p39p40p79p
GBPCHF24p23p27p54p
GBPJPY35p31p42p89p
GBPNZD41p41p48p86p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=3 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=2 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toGBPUSD 1h
Jul 30, 20263.75%3.75%3.75%—-3.9pStory
Jun 18, 20263.75%—3.75%—-17p—
Apr 30, 20263.75%—3.75%—-12p—
Mar 19, 20263.75%—3.75%—+6.9p—
Feb 5, 20263.75%—4%—-30p—
Dec 18, 20254%—4%—+42p—
Nov 6, 20254%—4%4%+8.7p—
Sep 18, 20254%—4.25%—-28p—
Aug 7, 20254.25%—4.25%—+36p—
Jun 19, 20254.25%—4.25%—+21p—
May 8, 20254.25%—4.5%—+63p—
Mar 20, 20254.5%—4.5%—-2.6p—
Feb 6, 20254.5%—4.75%—-47p—
Dec 19, 20244.75%—4.75%—-16p—
Nov 7, 20244.75%—5%—+51p—
Sep 19, 20245%—5%—+23p—
Aug 1, 20245%—5.25%—+16p—
Jun 20, 20245.25%—5.25%—-22p—
May 9, 20245.25%—5.25%—-16p—
Mar 21, 20245.25%—5.25%—-11p—
Feb 1, 20245.25%—5.25%—+33p—
Dec 14, 20235.25%—5.25%—+52p—
Nov 2, 20235.25%—5.25%—+21p—
Sep 21, 20235.25%—5.25%—-32p—

Showing the latest 24 of 83 tracked releases.

Reaction = GBPUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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